Try the calculator
Change the assumptions to see their effect on the average outcome per trade. All values use the same unit of risk, R, so the calculation is independent of account size.
Interactive tool · Illustrative inputs
1R is a consistent unit of risk. Inputs describe a hypothetical set of outcomes. This arithmetic does not estimate the chance of a drawdown or establish that a strategy has an edge. The starting values are examples, not recommended trading settings. Read the tool limitations.
The calculation
Expected outcome = (win probability × average win) − (loss probability × average loss) − average costs.
With the starting example, a 40% win rate, 2R average win, 1R average loss, and 0.05R of costs give 0.15R per trade. This is the arithmetic of the assumptions, not a forecast of results.
The break-even win rate is (average loss + costs) ÷ (average win + average loss). If the required rate exceeds 100%, the supplied payoff and costs cannot break even.
Use consistent inputs
Enter average wins and losses as positive magnitudes, measured before the costs entered here. Costs should include the average round-trip cost per trade in the same R units. If your outcomes already deduct those costs, enter zero in the costs field to avoid counting them twice.
This simple two-outcome calculation assumes every trade is classified as a win or a loss. It does not include a separate break-even outcome category.
What it leaves out
An average does not show the sequence of outcomes, uncertainty in your estimates, changing conditions, or the largest drawdown. The calculator assumes the supplied win rate and payoffs apply consistently. Real observations may not support that assumption.
Use it to understand a set of inputs. A complete strategy evaluation needs substantially more information.